Counterfactual

What if Tony Blair never went to war in Iraq?

I've been thinking about this question, in the context of Brexit and the general election. How might things be different by now?

Demonstration against the Iraq War in Universe Alpha.

The Way of Pain

The Prime Minister has made clear we're headed for a hard Brexit, come hell or high water. This reveals a great deal about her character and priorities.

Let's suppose Theresa May had actually wanted to keep the UK within the single market and customs union, in a Norway-style deal. It would honour the referendum result by leaving the EU, minimise damage to the UK economy, but also retain free movement and contributions to the EU budget. How could she have done it?

King of the Road

Today, the UK formally notifies the EU that it is invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, to begin the process of withdrawal.

Theresa May signs the letter of notification.
Image source: BBC/AP

Hurrah for freedom. God save the Queen. Enjoy shouting those slogans, because it's about all the benefit we'll get from this sorry exercise.

Parliament: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

It's been an exciting week in the UK Parliament. Some MPs should be proud of their actions, others thoroughly ashamed. Herewith are some of the heroes, villains and victims.

Delusions of a Big Nation

England's struggle with its own national identity is at the root of Brexit. In a recent article in the New European, Professor Nicholas Boyle develops this idea, and sets it in context of the demise of the British Empire. His piece makes some interesting points, but gets carried away at times, becoming too elaborate for its own good. (Also, a professor at Cambridge should really understand that Scotland is not a colony.)

I think Boyle's key point can be expressed a lot more simply: England has the self-image of a Big Nation.

The Positive Emperor

Between Trump, Brexit, Syria, and elsewhere, this has been an awful, terrifying year in the news. I'm going to try and conclude it with something a little more positive.

By way of background, I have a friend, let's call him Bill. He's a lot more devoted to political reform than I am. He works for an NGO and goes to dangerous parts of the world, to spend time building institutions of democracy. I don't agree with all of his views, but I give him kudos for intelligence and dedication.

Bill has repeatedly criticised me for failing to offer a positive vision. I think he misunderstands this blog, and my activity on social media more generally. I more or less explicitly model my blogging on Ed at Gin and Tacos. Ed has described his modus operandi as something like, "Here is this stupid thing, and here is Ed making fun of it."

This is a hobby for me. I write about politics to amuse myself (and hopefully others), and criticising is easier and more enjoyable than designing worthy proposals. I try not to have delusions of grandeur; my blog isn't going to transform the world either way, so I might as well have fun. And for the record, my day job is in computational biology. Among other things, I'm contributing to new treatments for cancer. So I'm pretty secure in my belief that I'm a responsible citizen.

That said: Okay, Bill. You wanted a positive vision, and here it is.

Imagine that by an unlikely chain of events, I am made Emperor of the United States, Shogun of Japan, Grand High Poobah of Australia, and Protector of the Western World, with absolute power over the USA, the EU, Canada, Australia, Japan, and sundry other rich and more-or-less democratic countries. The rest of the world matters too, but I don't understand places like China well enough to articulate their problems with any confidence, let alone propose solutions; this Empire is plenty to be getting on with.

What would I do?

Joshua A Norton, self-proclaimed Emperor of the United States,
whose life was dramatised by Neil Gaiman in The Sandman.

The Brexit Strategy

Tony Blair. Image source: The Guardian

This week, Tony Blair called for supporters of the European Union to mobilise against Brexit:

[Blair] said those who believed in the EU "have to recognise we're the insurgents now ... We have to build the capability to mobilise and to organise. We have to prise apart the alliance which gave us Brexit."

He suggested that, given a general election or second referendum, the results of the referendum on 23 June could be reversed:

"If it becomes clear that this is either a deal that doesn't make it worth our while leaving, or alternatively a deal that's going to be so serious in its implications people may decide they don't want to go, there's got to be some way, either through Parliament, or an election, or possibly through another referendum, in which people express their view."

Blair does have a point. Brexit has not yet passed the point of no return, and it's increasingly clear that it is likely to do grievous harm to the UK economy. It would be prudent to put on the brakes, and reconsider whether we really have to do this.

Scotland and Brexit

This week, Nicola Sturgeon published a draft bill to authorise a second Scottish independence referendum. That's a long way from committing to holding the referendum itself, but it's a big step along the way.

In the face of Brexit, Sturgeon and the SNP see an opportunity. It is more than fair for them to revisit independence under these circumstances. Scotland voted 62% to 38% in favour of staying in the EU. It didn't want the costly upheaval of Brexit.

This is not just a matter of money, but of identity. At the core of the Brexit argument lies the notion that our fellow Europeans are just too alien to work with constructively. I don't believe that, and neither does Scotland. It sees itself as a European nation, in a way that England clearly does not.

Image source: Wikimedia Commons

Good riddance to Boris Johnson

I almost called this one in advance, but didn't follow my logic to its conclusion. Yesterday morning I wrote:

[Boris Johnson] doesn't want the responsibility of rebuilding British international policy from the ground up; where's the fun in that?

I assumed Johnson was too ambitious to give up on the prize. He would become Prime Minister, and leave the country in an even worse condition than he found it. As it turns out, he really doesn't want the responsibility. A couple of hours later, Johnson announced he would not stand for the Conservative leadership.

David Cameron and Boris Johnson are the two people most directly responsible for our present state of chaos. These former inmates of Eton, Oxford, and the Bullingdon Club behaved like the spoiled children they are, and treated British institutions like expendable playthings. They tried to use the referendum to manipulate the Conservative Party's internal factions, for their own personal gain. They wanted to show off by juggling flaming torches, and now they have set fire to the family home.

Their own country mansions are intact. They can retire in luxury, and watch as others try to put out the flames and rebuild.

Our next Prime Minister will be the winner of the Conservative leadership contest. The current favourite is Theresa May, but these contests have a way of surprising us. Few expected William Hague to win in 1997, or Iain Duncan Smith in 2001. Whoever succeeds will of course be a Tory, so is unlikely to have much in the way of compassion; but I can at least hope for a degree of competence and responsibility.

Cameron and Johnson can now scuttle away, to spend more time with their ill-deserved personal wealth. I expect they are too busy feeling sorry for themselves to spare a thought for the rest of us. Be gone, the pair of you, and know that our fury and contempt will follow you for the rest of your pathetic lives.

Watch the world burn

"Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I'm a dog chasing cars. I wouldn't know what to do with one if I caught it! You know... I just do things." --- The Joker, The Dark Knight (2008)

The clowns of UKIP and jokers of the Conservative Party got their Brexit vote. They're the dog who finally caught the car. Now they have absolutely no idea what to do with it.

It didn't have to be this way.

Mad Hatter Democracy

I'm a big fan of the Rolling Stone writer Matt Taibbi, but I think he's seriously mistaken in his recent piece on the Brexit referendum. He lays into commentators who say the result should simply be disregarded:

If you think there's ever such a thing as "too much democracy," you probably never believed in it in the first place.

Taibbi has a point. It would be stupid to pretend the vote never happened, and nobody in a position of real influence is saying we should; but he goes wrong when he tries to draw wider conclusions.

On the Stupidity of David Cameron

Image credit: Spectator

(NSFW language below the fold. If it was ever called for, now is the time.)

Please Vote Remain

Houseboat next to Stourbridge Common, Cambridge, with a "Please Vote Remain" banner.

I hope Britain stays within the EU, and fear the consequences if it does not.

The effect of a Leave vote on our economy might be catastrophic, or it might merely be very bad. Independent, knowledgeable economists are agreed it would be negative.

In the face of clear warnings from people who have spent their lives studying this subject, the Leave campaign covers its ears and chants, "La, la, I can't hear you." Yesterday, Michael Gove compared these economists to Nazis, simply for expressing their professional opinion. Boris Johnson said he agreed with Gove.

To review: One side has sober, thorough analysis backed up by facts and data. The other has a floppy-haired ex-Mayor who is entirely too fond of Hitler comparisons; and it has a pattern of making things up -- or more bluntly, telling lies.

Maybe all of the experts are wrong; but is it really worth taking the risk? Our jobs, savings, mortgages, and public services are on the line. So is the inheritance of our children and grandchildren. Why should we take the chance?

Rule Britannia, Vote Remain

I am about to make a deeply unfashionable argument for staying in the EU: The UK is a good place to live.

I am defying the British tradition of grumbling about how life is a bit rubbish. For the most part, I like this tradition. It's a nice contrast to the chest-beating patriotism so popular in the USA. But right now, it is getting in the way of a clear-eyed view of the EU referendum.

Image credit: Dave Kellam on Flickr

Follow The Leader

The EU referendum campaign is heating up. Last week we had the rather splendid intervention of former Prime Minister John Major, who accurately said:

[Vote Leave] are feeding out to the British people a whole galaxy of inaccurate and frankly untrue information.

This is undoubtedly correct. For example, we have Vote Leave's infamous claim that the UK is paying £350 million a week to the EU. That is not true. Not even under the most generous interpretation. It's more than fair to criticise the Leave campaign when they start making things up in the hope voters are gullible enough to believe them.

Major joins in with a vast chorus of the great and the good, telling us we should stay in. This is a decidedly mixed blessing for the Remain campaign; it represents the establishment in a time of anti-establishment rage.

Diminished: The EU without the UK

Questions from Simon W on Facebook:

I'd also be interested in your thoughts on (a) whether it would be better for the EU (by which I really mean the other countries in the EU not the institution itself) for the UK for remain part of it, and (b) whether it would be better for the 'rest of the world' for the UK to remain part of the EU. 

Hearing David Miliband on the radio this morning arguing that for the UK to leave the EU would greatly reduce the UK's political influence in the world raised the question in my mind whether this might be a good thing. I have questions but no answers. 

Short answer: (a) Yes, (b) Yes, to the extent it matters.

The flu, the EU, and pattern recognition

Not so-called "man flu", but the real deal. I've got a temperature of 38.9 degrees Celsius (that's 102 Fahrenheit for Americans and other aliens), a bad headache, and difficulty standing up for more than a few minutes at a time.

I think I got this from my 16 month old son who was ill last week. He is clearly a lot tougher than he looks, since he shook it off in about three days and I've been feeling like this since Tuesday with the end not yet in sight.

No long blog post this week. Cute Cat Friday going up as usual. I watched the first 30 minutes or so of the first BBC debate on the EU referendum last night, but was unable to tolerate any more in my weakened condition.

Meanwhile, here is a cogent and non-doomsaying article with reasons to vote Remain.

If you need some idle amusement, I've been playing with what-dog.net, which attempts to recognise dog breeds from photos. The real fun starts when you upload photos of things which are not dogs. It thinks I'm a Shetland sheepdog. Also, it was surprisingly accurate on the personality traits of our late cat Dexter:

Leaflet sour grapes

The British government plans to distribute a leaflet to every household in the country, explaining why it supports a vote for the UK to remain in the European Union. Brexit campaigners are predictably furious, claiming it is an abuse of power and an affront to democracy.

Front cover of the government leaflet.

I Am Voting to Stay in the EU

On 23 June, the UK will hold a referendum on whether to leave the European Union. I will be voting to stay in. The EU is far from perfect, but I believe the UK is better off remaining a member.

I'll explain why, and comment on the campaign in general, as and when I have time. (Fatherhood is a great joy and I wouldn't change it for the world, but it does cut down on my available blogging time.)

Meanwhile, my views are very much in agreement with the Scientists for EU campaign.