Friday, 9 June 2017
Wednesday, 7 June 2017
Election night drinking game 2017
Election night is upon us once again. I'll be on Twitter at @iainrobertsblog and @ElectionMorbo for as long as I can stay awake. It might not be too long, as I've been up since 6 am and will be travelling for much of the day, but we'll see.
I've composed an update to my 2015 drinking game. It's simple and not especially partisan. Play with the beverage of your choice: Wine, beer, tea, Ardbeg, lemonade, or whatever. I won't judge.
I've composed an update to my 2015 drinking game. It's simple and not especially partisan. Play with the beverage of your choice: Wine, beer, tea, Ardbeg, lemonade, or whatever. I won't judge.
- Sip:
- "Strong and stable"
- "Coalition of chaos"
- "The many not the few"
- Fringe candidate is wearing a ridiculous costume.
- A seat is gained by one of the underdogs:
- Labour
- Liberal Democrats
- Greens
- Plaid Cymru
- UKIP
- Gulp:
- Cabinet minister loses seat. (Unlikely given the opinion polls, but you never know.)
- Shadow Cabinet minister loses seat.
- Finish drink:
- Candidate has epic meltdown on camera. You'll know it when you see it. The template is Peter Mandelson's "I'm a fighter, not a quitter" rant in 2001 (video below).
- Theresa May announces her resignation as Prime Minister.
- Jeremy Corbyn concedes the election to Theresa May.
The Good, the Ugly, and the Astoundingly Bad
Thoughts on the major UK-wide parties, as we enter the final days of the campaign:
I am voting Liberal Democrat. My reasons for backing them in 2015 still stand. I agree with their principles, more so than any other party. Their candidate, Julian Huppert, was an exemplary MP for Cambridge from 2010-15 and I would be happy to see him return to Parliament.
The shadow of Brexit hangs over everything now. I believe it is a dreadful mistake. The LibDems promise a referendum to allow us to reverse it.
I encourage anyone in a constituency with a viable Liberal Democrat candidate to support them. More Liberal Democrats in Parliament would provide a badly needed voice in support of human rights; accountable government; and international cooperation, including but not limited to the European Union.
Liberal Democrats
I am voting Liberal Democrat. My reasons for backing them in 2015 still stand. I agree with their principles, more so than any other party. Their candidate, Julian Huppert, was an exemplary MP for Cambridge from 2010-15 and I would be happy to see him return to Parliament.
The shadow of Brexit hangs over everything now. I believe it is a dreadful mistake. The LibDems promise a referendum to allow us to reverse it.
I encourage anyone in a constituency with a viable Liberal Democrat candidate to support them. More Liberal Democrats in Parliament would provide a badly needed voice in support of human rights; accountable government; and international cooperation, including but not limited to the European Union.
Friday, 2 June 2017
Cute Cat Friday 2017-06-02: Joni
Watching our toddler race around the garden. Whatever will that small excitable human do next?
Before A Fall
Labour is gaining ground in the polls. I'll admit it: I did not expect this.
Some perspective is in order. The Tories still enjoy a lead outside the margin of error, in every single poll taken so far. Let's look at the last five polls, released between 27 May and 1 June. The Conservative lead varies from +12 (ICM, 29 May) to +3 (YouGov, 31 May). Taking the mean of these five, we have Con 43.4, Lab 35.6, LibDem 8.2, UKIP 4, for a Tory lead of +8. Plugging this into the UK Polling Report swingometer results in a Conservative majority of 46.
Twenty-five months ago, David Cameron would have given his left testicle for these polling numbers. The boost in Labour support won't necessarily hold up; and it appears to be driven by younger voters, who may or may not turn out on election day.
That said, this election was widely expected to be a walkover for the Tories, with excitable talk of a landslide of 150 seats or more. Expectations were driven so high that Theresa May could win a majority of 40 or 50 seats, the best Conservative result in 30 years, and it would still feel like something of a defeat.
How has this happened?
Some perspective is in order. The Tories still enjoy a lead outside the margin of error, in every single poll taken so far. Let's look at the last five polls, released between 27 May and 1 June. The Conservative lead varies from +12 (ICM, 29 May) to +3 (YouGov, 31 May). Taking the mean of these five, we have Con 43.4, Lab 35.6, LibDem 8.2, UKIP 4, for a Tory lead of +8. Plugging this into the UK Polling Report swingometer results in a Conservative majority of 46.
 |
| Conservative Central Office. Displeased at recent developments, but still planning for victory. |
Twenty-five months ago, David Cameron would have given his left testicle for these polling numbers. The boost in Labour support won't necessarily hold up; and it appears to be driven by younger voters, who may or may not turn out on election day.
That said, this election was widely expected to be a walkover for the Tories, with excitable talk of a landslide of 150 seats or more. Expectations were driven so high that Theresa May could win a majority of 40 or 50 seats, the best Conservative result in 30 years, and it would still feel like something of a defeat.
How has this happened?
Friday, 26 May 2017
Living Well Is The Best Revenge
This week, 22 people were killed and 116 injured by a terrorist bombing in Manchester.
The targets of this attack were concert-goers, most of them young women and girls. They were harming no one. They wanted a night out to celebrate their love of music, and watch one of their favourite performers. A young man wanted so badly to kill them that he was willing to sacrifice his own life to do it.
In response to such hatred, we have to go on living. That means not merely surviving, but living in accordance with our greatest joys and highest values.
It means we must remember the values of compassion, tolerance and the rule of law. They have enabled us to build a free and prosperous society, imperfect though it may be.
It means we must cherish life, happiness and hope for the future. The bombing was an act of vicious hatred, but also one of profound and utter hopelessness. The bomber saw no hope for his personal future; he felt the best thing he could do with his life was end it, along with many others.
We will not live like this. We will not live in the fearful, joyless, stunted condition that the likes of ISIS wish upon us, and practice for themselves in the territories they rule.
Today I am going to the Cambridge Beer Festival. I am going to share in the simple enjoyment of good drink, good food, and good company on what promises to be a warm sunny day.
Needless to say, ISIS would not approve. There will be beer and pork pies involved; but that's not what really matters here. If you don't drink alcohol, or eat particular animal products, fine. It's the enjoyment that will really get to them.
Do what makes yourself and others happy. Share a meal with a friend, call a relative on the phone, be kind to a stranger. Paint a picture, write a story, plant a garden.
In the end, this is what we have. We are motes of life on the surface of a ball of rock hurtling through an incomprehensibly vast universe. Each one of us is a spark of awareness in the dark ocean of eternity, infinitesimally tiny and magnificently important.
Knowing this, hatred and fear are hollow things, which we will not allow to overcome us.
Related posts:
The targets of this attack were concert-goers, most of them young women and girls. They were harming no one. They wanted a night out to celebrate their love of music, and watch one of their favourite performers. A young man wanted so badly to kill them that he was willing to sacrifice his own life to do it.
In response to such hatred, we have to go on living. That means not merely surviving, but living in accordance with our greatest joys and highest values.
It means we must remember the values of compassion, tolerance and the rule of law. They have enabled us to build a free and prosperous society, imperfect though it may be.
It means we must cherish life, happiness and hope for the future. The bombing was an act of vicious hatred, but also one of profound and utter hopelessness. The bomber saw no hope for his personal future; he felt the best thing he could do with his life was end it, along with many others.
We will not live like this. We will not live in the fearful, joyless, stunted condition that the likes of ISIS wish upon us, and practice for themselves in the territories they rule.
Today I am going to the Cambridge Beer Festival. I am going to share in the simple enjoyment of good drink, good food, and good company on what promises to be a warm sunny day.
Needless to say, ISIS would not approve. There will be beer and pork pies involved; but that's not what really matters here. If you don't drink alcohol, or eat particular animal products, fine. It's the enjoyment that will really get to them.
Do what makes yourself and others happy. Share a meal with a friend, call a relative on the phone, be kind to a stranger. Paint a picture, write a story, plant a garden.
In the end, this is what we have. We are motes of life on the surface of a ball of rock hurtling through an incomprehensibly vast universe. Each one of us is a spark of awareness in the dark ocean of eternity, infinitesimally tiny and magnificently important.
Knowing this, hatred and fear are hollow things, which we will not allow to overcome us.
 |
| Scene from the 2010 Cambridge Beer Festival. Image source: Shaggy359, Wikimedia Commons |
Related posts:
- Defiance: March 2017
- Theology, Market Share and Charlie Hebdo: January 2015
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