On Incompetence and Apathy

This is a story of two middle-ranking politicians of very different character.

Iain Duncan Smith, also known as IDS, is the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions. He was leader of the Conservative Party from 2001-03 until his party overthrew him for manifest incompetence. The Conservatives were led into the 2005 election by Michael Howard, who once was memorably described as having "something of the night about him". Howard may be evil, but he was capable enough to lead them to a narrow defeat rather than a repeat of the Labour landslides in 1997 and 2001.

Iain Duncan Smith

IDS claims he was inspired to address the plight of the poor by visiting Glasgow housing estates; he may even be sincere. As Work and Pensions Secretary, he launched an ambitious attempt to overhaul the benefits system, which has degenerated into a very expensive catastrophe. It is unlikely this came as a surprise to his colleagues. It is alleged they think IDS is just not intelligent enough to manage a large and complex department of government.

On behalf of Iains everywhere, I am most annoyed that IDS is bringing such disgrace to our name.

Cute Cat Friday 2014-07-25: Dexter & Belle

Hot summer days make the cats lazier than usual.

Scotland's Vote 8: The Independent Republic of Edinburgh

Much of the referendum debate hinges on whether Scotland's economy will be better or worse off under independence. Here is a thought experiment which may put this discussion into perspective.

Free Edinburgh in 2027

From the preamble to the manifesto of the Free Edinburgh Party, for the 2027 General Election in an independent Scotland:

We believe Edinburgh should be a free city-state, a member of the UN and the European Union in its own right. We will no longer tolerate being ruled by Glasgow and other areas which do not have Edinburgh's interests at heart.

Edinburgh: The next member of the UN?
Source: PhotoEverywhere

Cute Cat Friday 2014-07-18: Dexter

Lazy times in the back garden.

Scotland does it better

In recent times England has made a habit of humiliating Scotland at rugby; but when it comes to an official residence for the head of government, Scotland is clearly superior.

Scotland's Vote 7: The SNP Disparity

The Yes campaign has failed to move many of its potential supporters.

The SNP is very popular as a party of government in Scotland. A high point in their support was recorded in an Ipsos-MORI poll released in October 2013:

The latest Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor, conducted last month, found that 57% of Scots are satisfied with the way the Scottish Government is running the country, while 34% were dissatisfied. This represents a net approval rating (the proportion who are satisfied minus the proportion who are dissatisfied) of +23, an increase of 10 points since our last poll in May. 

This is in contrast to the UK Government’s approval rating, which was -28 among British adults in September.

On the other hand, the No campaign has consistently led in opinion polls, most recently with an 11-point lead in an ICM poll on 13 July 2014.

Comparing the Scottish government's approval rating of +23 with the Yes campaign's position of -11, we have a difference of 34 points. Therefore, up to one third of Scotland's electorate are willing to express a positive view of the SNP, but still intend to vote No.

Bute House, Edinburgh; official residence of the Scottish First Minister.
Source: Wikipedia

If I were the Yes campaign, I would be thinking very hard about how to reach these people. So far, they have been notably unsuccessful. If the Yes side had a consistent lead of +23 points, or even half of that, the political atmosphere would be very different; but it hasn't happened.

(Some Yes-inclined friends have recently posted diatribes on social media about how stupid No voters are. This does not strike me as an optimal strategy, but it is the Yes campaign's problem and not mine.)

Cute Cat Friday 2014-07-11: Dexter

Dexter is asserting his rights to the comfy spot on the sofa.